财新传媒 财新传媒

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拙作《经济运行的逻辑》面市之际,渣打银行大中华区的经济学家王志浩(Stepehen Green,他是一个英国人,却起了一个特别中国化的中文名字)博士欣然做文推荐,并讨论了他从事中国经济分析的一些感悟。评论文章见下文(中英文对照)。需要说明的是,其中的美言部分显然属于过誉之词,作者本人万不敢当。

 

我觉得对于想认真研究当今中国经济的人来说,有这么几个关键的准则需要认真把握:

第一,你得很小心数据。数据不一定都不准确,但为了恰当地运用这些数据,你需要明白每个数据序列可能存在的问题。

第二,你得尽量走出办公室。中国发生着什么不是光看数据就能看出来的。你得知道政策是如何执行的;企业在做什么;消费者感受到了什么……不走出去,不跟人们交谈你就搞不清楚现实状况。

第三,阅读高善文博士所撰写的每篇文章。他能够把聪明的短期市场判断与深刻的宏观框架结合起来,这在当今只有少数的经济学家能够做到,在中国范围内如此,在全球范围内也是如此。结果就是,读他的作品总是会让你去思考一些新的东西,并启发一些有趣的交易机会。他真正是世界级的——对此,他的新著《经济运行的逻辑》就是明证。


There are a few rules which I think are pretty much essential for anyone serious about studying China’s economy today.

 

Rule #1: You should be careful with the data: it is not all bad, but you need to understand the problems with each series in order to use it properly.

 

Rule #2: Get out of the office as much as you can. So much of what is happening today in China is not in the data; its driven by how policy is being implemented, what firms are doing, how consumers are feeling, and to get a sense of that there is no substitute for getting out there and talking to people.

 

Rule #3. Always read everything Gao Shanwen writes. He is one of the very few economists working today – not just in China but globally – who combine smart, short-term market views with a thoughtful macro-framework. As a result, reading his work will always give you something new to think about and something interesting to trade. He genuinely is world-class – and this latest book is testament to that fact.

 

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先后任职于中国人民银行总行办公厅和国务院发展研究中心金融研究所,曾任光大证券研究所首席经济学家,现任安信证券首席经济学家。

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